Drawing on Innate Resilience
Given the unprecedented nature of the pandemic and uncertainty around effective remedies and the likelihood of follow-on viral waves, it would be foolhardy to predict the timelines or the nature of recovery. While recognizing the scale of impact, it should however be emphasized that humans have endured past tragedies, including the Black Plague, Spanish flu, multiple continental and world wars, and a variety of financial panics. Although the current crisis will cause painful adjustments for individuals, societies, governments, and enterprises, history guides us to the new dawn comprising renewed societies, enhanced business models, and greater resilience.
As the leading financial investor, Ben Carlson, reflects on the crisis in a broader context on his blog, A Wealth of Common Sense¹,

“…they all come to an end. Stocks recover. Economies continue to grow. People still get up every day looking to improve their station in life. If you’re betting against the human spirit, I’ll take the other side of that bet 10 times out of 10.”

History Teaches Us That Deep Crises Drive Radical Change
Like modern societies and enterprises, complex organizational structures tend to have a built-in equilibrium-seeking mechanism that guides them towards stability. This has been studied in evolutionary biology, with organisms adapting to unfamiliar environments through gradual evolution. However, when the nature of change is dramatic, induced discontinuity can cause sudden structural change that is sustained in subsequent generations – a phenomenon defined by sociologists as punctuated equilibrium².
As an example, women’s participation in the US workforce³ before World War II remained low, with their involvement limited to roles such as store clerks and receptionists. During World War II, workforce shortages inspired campaigns to draw greater women participation in non-traditional roles, including army support, manufacturing, and transport. As this proved effective, female workforce participation continued to increase even after the war concluded. Likewise, while Germany was progressing incrementally towards green energy, the nuclear incident at Fukushima in 2011⁴ drove an outright ban of nuclear power and the further prioritization of renewable energy.
Finally, as a cautionary tale and to paraphrase Victor Hugo, acting against ‘ideas whose time has come’ can be crippling. Johannes Gutenberg’s movable type printing press triggered an information revolution, driving the European Renaissance in the 15th century. Blind to its value, the leadership and powerful clergy at the Ottoman empire⁵ aimed to keep traditional manuscripts in vogue. Their decision to ban innovation and resist change resulted in the permanent decline of Turkish power.

Taking Charge of Change
“When written in Chinese, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters— one represents danger and the other represents opportunity.”
– John F. Kennedy, Former President, United States of America Given this historical context, it is pertinent to explore how economies are likely to emerge from the lockdown. Specific industry segments like tourism and travel will undergo a more fundamental churn, with many enterprises in these spaces not surviving the deep downturn.

It would be foolhardy to suggest that larger organizations are impervious to this threat. Companies across industry segments will experience a radical change in their operating models. The article categorizes this impact around three broad areas—customer acquisition, execution, and risk management.